Lower Susquehanna and Middle Creek Duck Migration Forecast

Where Lower Susquehanna and Middle Creek is

Lower Susquehanna and Middle Creek is drawn from 9 counties in Pennsylvania: Adams, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Perry, Schuylkill and York. Those are the counties its shape on the DuckCast map is built from, so a hunter in any of them reads this region’s score.

Public ground with waterfowl hunting

• Middle Creek Wildlife Management Area (State Game Lands 46): A late-winter snow goose stop; the Game Commission's largest count on record was 200,000 snow geese on February 21, 2018.

Seasons, permits, draws and open days change from year to year, so check the state wildlife agency’s rules, linked below, before you go.

When Lower Susquehanna and Middle Creek peaks

DuckCast’s season model puts the wood duck peak here around mid October. The timing follows the statewide curve; what differs here is how many birds the model expects, below. That is a modelled typical curve, not a prediction for any single year. The actual push depends on cold fronts and freeze-up upstream, which is what the daily score tracks. Always confirm season dates with the state wildlife agency, linked below.

Which birds the model expects in Lower Susquehanna and Middle Creek

In DuckCast’s season model, the species that can score highest in Lower Susquehanna and Middle Creek are wood ducks, Canada geese and mallards. Against the state as a whole, it expects more snow geese and black ducks in Lower Susquehanna and Middle Creek.

Those weights come from harvest records, survey counts and the kind of water, not from a count taken here each season. They cap how high each species’ score can climb; the weather still has to bring the birds.

What DuckCast watches upstream of Lower Susquehanna and Middle Creek

5 upstream stations feed this region's freeze line, nearest first: Binghamton, NY, about 140 miles north, Montezuma NWR, NY, about 195 miles north, Iroquois NWR, NY, about 220 miles north, Albany, NY, about 235 miles northeast and Cape Vincent, NY, about 275 miles north. When those stations ice over, the score here starts climbing before anything changes in the local sky.

Radar over Lower Susquehanna and Middle Creek

Each morning DuckCast reads the night’s NEXRAD data from KCCX, the National Weather Service radar at State College, about 80 miles northwest of the region’s weather point. That is well outside the region, so treat the radar reading as area context rather than a measurement of this ground. Radar sees every bird in the air, not only ducks, so it confirms or questions the score rather than moving it.

Locations stay generalized

Hunter reports for Lower Susquehanna and Middle Creek are always shown at the region level. DuckCast never collects or displays exact coordinates, so filing a report here never burns a spot.