Three Rivers and Lake Arthur Duck Migration Forecast

Where Three Rivers and Lake Arthur is

Three Rivers and Lake Arthur is drawn from 10 counties in Pennsylvania: Allegheny, Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Fayette, Greene, Indiana, Lawrence, Washington and Westmoreland. Those are the counties its shape on the DuckCast map is built from, so a hunter in any of them reads this region’s score.

When Three Rivers and Lake Arthur peaks

DuckCast’s season model puts the wood duck peak here around mid October. The timing follows the statewide curve; what differs here is how many birds the model expects, below. That is a modelled typical curve, not a prediction for any single year. The actual push depends on cold fronts and freeze-up upstream, which is what the daily score tracks. Always confirm season dates with the state wildlife agency, linked below.

Which birds the model expects in Three Rivers and Lake Arthur

In DuckCast’s season model, the species that can score highest in Three Rivers and Lake Arthur are wood ducks, Canada geese and mallards. Against the state as a whole, it expects fewer snow geese, blue-winged teal, pintails, black ducks, green-winged teal, wigeon, mallards, gadwall and Canada geese in Three Rivers and Lake Arthur.

Those weights come from harvest records, survey counts and the kind of water, not from a count taken here each season. They cap how high each species’ score can climb; the weather still has to bring the birds.

What DuckCast watches upstream of Three Rivers and Lake Arthur

4 upstream stations feed this region's freeze line, nearest first: Jamestown, NY, about 120 miles north, Buffalo, NY, about 175 miles north, Iroquois NWR, NY, about 200 miles north and Montezuma NWR, NY, about 235 miles northeast. When those stations ice over, the score here starts climbing before anything changes in the local sky.

Radar over Three Rivers and Lake Arthur

Each morning DuckCast reads the night’s NEXRAD data from KPBZ, the National Weather Service radar at Pittsburgh, about 25 miles west of the region’s weather point. That is close enough for the radar to sample the air over the region itself. Radar sees every bird in the air, not only ducks, so it confirms or questions the score rather than moving it.

Locations stay generalized

Hunter reports for Three Rivers and Lake Arthur are always shown at the region level. DuckCast never collects or displays exact coordinates, so filing a report here never burns a spot.