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Lower Susquehanna and Middle Creek

Harrisburg to the Maryland line: the river pools above Conowingo, Middle Creek and the Lancaster and York farm country. Snow geese in late winter, mallards and blacks on open river into January.

4.7

Stable / Staging

Stable Birds / Staging

Low confidence→ 0.0 last 24hCanada Geese 4.0

Wood Ducks score, conditions as of Mon, Nov 2, 2:00 PM

Lower Susquehanna and Middle Creek

4.6

Warming 3° vs yesterday

Legal light 5:09 AMSunrise 5:39 AMSunset 4:03 PM🌗 Last quarter · 40%

5AM3SSE · 44°
6AM4SSE · 43°
7AM2SSE · 47°
8AM3S · 53°
9AM5SSW · 59°
10AM5SSW · 63°
11AM5SSW · 67°
6.7Decoy score · WorkableNear-calm morning: birds will circle high and look hard · Midweek rest: birds have settled since the weekend crowds

Best window: Legal light (5:09 AM) to 10:00 AM

No push wind forecast; first light is the best bet

A warming trend is settling birds in place

Season dates · North Zone October 10-24, 2026 and November 17, 2026 to January 9, 2027. South Zone October 10-17, 2026 and November 18, 2026 to January 18, 2027. Northwest Zone October 10 to November 27, 2026 and December 21, 2026 to January 9, 2027. Lake Erie Zone November 2, 2026 to January 9, 2027. Sundays are closed to all migratory bird hunting statewide in 2026-27.

Times shown for the region center. Season dates and limits change yearly and by zone: verify with PA Game Commission.

Ponds, marshes and beaver swamps: OpenLakes and impoundments: OpenBig rivers and Lake Erie: Open0 freezing degree-days over the last 6 days, counting the next 2 at half (estimated from air temps until the satellite ice feed lands)

Water on the landscape: Water on the landscape is in decent shape (1% of Pennsylvania in drought, US Drought Monitor).

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  • A warming trend is settling birds in place

Fair

A warming trend is settling birds in place. Strongest window: Wed into Thu.

Wood Ducks
4.7Mon24.6Tue3

Days 8 through 14 sit beyond the reliable forecast window and lean on season history. Read them as a trend, not a promise.

The score is a weighted blend of the drivers below, each rated 0 to 10 from current conditions. No black box: this is the whole model.

Cold front / temp trend28% weight
1.0

Warming ~7°F, no push trigger

Wind direction + speed14% weight
4.0

Light or variable winds

Freeze north of region11% weight
1.5

0% of upstream hours below 28°F

Snow advance upstream4% weight
1.5

Little to no snow upstream

Local open water / holding21% weight
9.0

Waters open, birds can stay and feed

Season timing19% weight
8.0

Inside the prime migration window

Crop harvest / field feed2% weight
6.5

Corn ~55%, beans ~64% (typical-progress estimate)

Hunter reports0% weight
5.0

No reports in the last 72h, so this factor is not counted

Pro

The freeze line across the stations upstream of this region, station by station, so you see shallow water locking up before the birds arrive on it.

Pro

Last night's NEXRAD read on whether birds actually moved: how much lifted off after sunset, which way it tracked, and how fast it flew under its own power once the wind at that altitude is subtracted out.

66°Fnow
SSW 7 mphwind
↑ 5°next 24h, rising
DayHi / LoWindSnow
MonNov 266° / 41°S 8 mph
TueNov 370° / 43°S 7 mph
WedNov 472° / 48°SSE 12 mph
ThuNov 571° / 58°SSW 10 mph
FriNov 670° / 50°WNW 8 mph
SatNov 754° / 38°WNW 14 mph
SunNov 857° / 35°S 9 mph
Pro

What other hunters reported in this region over the last 72 hours: species, how hard they were feeding, and whether the birds looked like new arrivals. Filing your own report is free and counts toward this region's score either way.