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Rolling Plains

Reservoir and stock tank country from Abilene up to the Red River. Big water that holds birds after the shallow playas west of it lock up.

7.0

Strong Conditions

Strong Migration Conditions

Moderate confidence↑ +1.3 last 24hPintails 7.3

Gadwall score, conditions as of Mon, Nov 2, 3:00 PM

Rolling Plains

5.6

Falling 12° vs yesterday

Legal light 6:28 AMSunrise 6:58 AMSunset 5:45 PM🌗 Last quarter · 40%

5AM6W · 56°
6AM6W · 55°
7AM7W · 54°
8AM10WNW · 55°
9AM15NW · 57°
10AM16NW · 59°
11AM17NNW · 60°
6.5Decoy score · WorkableWorking wind: 11 mph through the morning · Bluebird sky: expect wary, high birds · Midweek rest: birds have settled since the weekend crowds

Best window: 10:00 AM to 12:00 PM

Built around the strongest northwest wind of the morning

Temperatures falling about 15°F over the next 48 hours

  • Dry fall: birds concentrated on remaining water

Season dates · High Plains Mallard Management Unit October 24-25, 2026 and October 30, 2026 to January 31, 2027. North Zone November 14-29, 2026 and December 5, 2026 to January 31, 2027. South Zone November 7-29, 2026 and December 12, 2026 to January 31, 2027.

Times shown for the region center. Season dates and limits change yearly and by zone: verify with Texas Parks and Wildlife.

Playas, rice and flooded fields: OpenMarsh, sloughs and timber: OpenReservoirs, bays and the Laguna: Open0 freezing degree-days over the last 6 days, counting the next 2 at half (estimated from air temps until the satellite ice feed lands)

Water on the landscape: Dry fall: birds concentrated on remaining water (68% of Texas in drought, US Drought Monitor).

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  • Temperatures falling about 15°F over the next 48 hours
  • Northwest winds building to 17 mph
  • Corn harvest roughly 98% complete, heavy field feed available

Good

Temperatures falling about 15°F over the next 48 hours. Northwest winds building to 17 mph. Strongest window: Mon into Tue.

Gadwall
7.0Mon25.6Tue3

Days 8 through 14 sit beyond the reliable forecast window and lean on season history. Read them as a trend, not a promise.

The score is a weighted blend of the drivers below, each rated 0 to 10 from current conditions. No black box: this is the whole model.

Cold front / temp trend24% weight
7.4

Temps falling ~15°F into the next 48h

Wind direction + speed21% weight
7.8

NW winds to 17 mph across 13 of the next 48h

Freeze north of region5% weight
1.5

0% of upstream hours below 28°F

Snow advance upstream3% weight
1.5

Little to no snow upstream

Local open water / holding15% weight
7.7

68% of the state in drought: less water, and birds stacked on what is left

Season timing21% weight
5.7

Shoulder of the migration window

Crop harvest / field feed12% weight
9.8

Corn ~98%, beans ~91% (typical-progress estimate)

Hunter reports0% weight
5.0

No reports in the last 72h, so this factor is not counted

Pro

The freeze line across the stations upstream of this region, station by station, so you see shallow water locking up before the birds arrive on it.

Pro

Last night's NEXRAD read on whether birds actually moved: how much lifted off after sunset, which way it tracked, and how fast it flew under its own power once the wind at that altitude is subtracted out.

84°Fnow
SSW 20 mphwind
↓ 16°next 24h, falling
DayHi / LoWindSnow
MonNov 284° / 61°SSW 22 mph
TueNov 368° / 54°NW 17 mph
WedNov 471° / 49°S 10 mph
ThuNov 572° / 54°WNW 22 mph
FriNov 665° / 49°N 13 mph
SatNov 768° / 51°W 9 mph
SunNov 869° / 53°N 12 mph
Pro

What other hunters reported in this region over the last 72 hours: species, how hard they were feeding, and whether the birds looked like new arrivals. Filing your own report is free and counts toward this region's score either way.