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Southwest North Dakota

Drier shortgrass country. Opportunistic water; fishes best right behind a major push.

4.8

Stable / Staging

Stable Birds / Staging

Moderate confidence↑ +0.4 last 24hPintails 5.5

Mallards score, conditions as of Tue, Oct 6, 12:00 AM

Southwest North Dakota

4.8

Steady temps

Legal light 7:28 AMSunrise 7:58 AMSunset 7:25 PM🌘 Waning crescent · 25%

5AM9W · 53°
6AM10WNW · 52°
7AM11WNW · 52°
8AM12WNW · 51°
9AM10WNW · 53°
10AM13WNW · 60°
11AM14WNW · 65°
6.9Decoy score · WorkableWorking wind: 11 mph through the morning · Bluebird sky: expect wary, high birds · Midweek rest: birds have settled since the weekend crowds

Best window: 10:00 AM to 12:00 PM

Built around the strongest northwest wind of the morning

Northwest winds building to 18 mph

  • Drier than normal: water is patchy

Season dates · Low Plains Unit September 26 to December 6, 2026. High Plains Unit September 26 to December 6, 2026 and December 12, 2026 to January 3, 2027. Residents only September 26 to October 4; nonresidents may begin October 5.

Times shown for the region center. Season dates and limits change yearly and by zone: verify with ND Game and Fish.

Sheet water: OpenPotholes: OpenBig water: Open0 freezing degree-days over the last two weeks (estimated from air temps until the satellite ice feed lands)

Water on the landscape: Drier than normal: water is patchy (58% of North Dakota in drought, US Drought Monitor).

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  • Northwest winds building to 18 mph

Fair

Northwest winds building to 18 mph. Strongest window: Tue into Wed.

Mallards
4.8Tue63.8Wed7

Days 8 through 14 sit beyond the reliable forecast window and lean on season history. Read them as a trend, not a promise.

The score is a weighted blend of the drivers below, each rated 0 to 10 from current conditions. No black box: this is the whole model.

Cold front / temp trend19% weight
3.0

Temps falling ~3°F into the next 48h

Wind direction + speed17% weight
9.0

NW winds to 18 mph across 19 of the next 48h

Freeze north of region15% weight
1.5

0% of upstream hours below 28°F

Snow advance upstream9% weight
1.5

Little to no snow upstream

Local open water / holding12% weight
8.3

58% of the state in drought: water is patchier than normal

Season timing17% weight
5.2

Shoulder of the migration window

Crop harvest / field feed10% weight
4.8

Corn ~19%, beans ~44% (typical-progress estimate)

Hunter reports0% weight
5.0

No reports in the last 72h, so this factor is not counted

Pro

The freeze line across the stations upstream of this region, station by station, so you see shallow water locking up before the birds arrive on it.

Pro

Last night's NEXRAD read on whether birds actually moved: how much lifted off after sunset, which way it tracked, and how fast it flew under its own power once the wind at that altitude is subtracted out.

55°Fnow
WNW 8 mphwind
↓ 1°next 24h, falling
DayHi / LoWindSnow
TueOct 673° / 51°NW 18 mph
WedOct 770° / 48°NNW 10 mph
ThuOct 867° / 50°ESE 10 mph
FriOct 975° / 49°SSE 18 mph
SatOct 1074° / 51°NNW 15 mph
SunOct 1147° / 38°NE 13 mph0.1 in
MonOct 1239° / 36°E 12 mph0.2 in
Pro

What other hunters reported in this region over the last 72 hours: species, how hard they were feeding, and whether the birds looked like new arrivals. Filing your own report is free and counts toward this region's score either way.