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Southwest North Dakota

Drier shortgrass country. Opportunistic water; fishes best right behind a major push.

4.1

Stable / Staging

Stable Birds / Staging

Moderate confidence -0.6 last 24hPintails 4.5

Gadwall score, conditions as of Tue, Sep 15, 12:00 PM

Southwest North Dakota

2.6

Warming 9° vs yesterday

Legal light 7:02 AMSunrise 7:32 AMSunset 8:04 PM🌒 Waxing crescent · 23%

5AM16SE · 50°
6AM17SE · 50°
7AM16SE · 51°
8AM17SE · 51°
9AM20SSE · 56°
10AM23SSE · 60°
11AM21SSE · 63°
7.3Decoy score · WorkableWorking wind: 19 mph through the morning · Gusts to 41: decoys will look wrong on open water · Falling pressure: birds feed hard ahead of weather

Best window: Legal light (7:02 AM) to 10:00 AM

No push wind forecast; first light is the best bet

Northwest winds building to 20 mph

Times shown for the region center. Season dates and limits change yearly and by zone: verify with ND Game and Fish.

Sheet water: OpenPotholes: OpenBig water: Open0 freezing degree-days over the last two weeks (estimated from air temps until the satellite ice feed lands)

Water on the landscape: Water on the landscape is in decent shape (0% of North Dakota in drought, US Drought Monitor).

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  • Northwest winds building to 20 mph

Fair

Northwest winds building to 20 mph. Strongest window: Tue into Wed.

Gadwall
4.5Tue152.6Wed164.0Thu172.6Fri183.9Sat193.4Sun203.9Mon212.8Tue224.2Wed232.9Thu244.9Fri253.9Sat263.2Sun273.1Mon28

Days 8 through 14 sit beyond the reliable forecast window and lean on season history. Read them as a trend, not a promise.

The score is a weighted blend of the drivers below, each rated 0 to 10 from current conditions. No black box: this is the whole model.

Cold front / temp trend16% weight
1.9

Flat temperature trend

Wind direction + speed14% weight
8.0

NW winds to 20 mph across 11 of the next 48h

Freeze north of region16% weight
1.5

0% of upstream hours below 28°F

Snow advance upstream10% weight
1.5

Little to no snow upstream

Local open water / holding10% weight
9.0

Waters open, birds can stay and feed

Season timing14% weight
3.9

Shoulder of the migration window

Crop harvest / field feed8% weight
3.0

Corn ~0%, beans ~0% (typical-progress estimate)

Hunter reports12% weight
5.0

No recent hunter reports in this region

Pro

The freeze line across the stations upstream of this region, station by station, so you see shallow water locking up before the birds arrive on it.

Pro

Last night's NEXRAD read on whether birds actually moved: how much lifted off after sunset, which way it tracked, and how fast it flew under its own power once the wind at that altitude is subtracted out.

59°Fnow
NW 15 mphwind
8°next 24h, rising
DayHi / LoWindSnow
TueSep 1566° / 48°NW 24 mph
WedSep 1681° / 50°SE 23 mph
ThuSep 1772° / 45°E 17 mph
FriSep 1874° / 59°SE 14 mph
SatSep 1967° / 56°SE 11 mph
SunSep 2067° / 56°SE 10 mph
MonSep 2162° / 51°ESE 10 mph
Pro

What other hunters reported in this region over the last 72 hours: species, how hard they were feeding, and whether the birds looked like new arrivals. Filing your own report is free and counts toward this region's score either way.