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Central

Keystone, Arcadia and the Deep Fork bottoms through the middle of the state. Hunted hard because the population is here.

3.3

Stable / Staging

Pre-Season, Birds Still North

High confidence +0.2 last 24hMallards 3.0

Pintails score, conditions as of Tue, Sep 15, 12:00 PM

Central

2.5

Steady temps

Legal light 6:43 AMSunrise 7:13 AMSunset 7:37 PM🌒 Waxing crescent · 23%

5AM8SSW · 79°
6AM9S · 79°
7AM6SSW · 78°
8AM8S · 79°
9AM11SSW · 83°
10AM10SSW · 88°
11AM10SSW · 93°
6.4Decoy score · ToughBluebird sky: expect wary, high birds · Midweek rest: birds have settled since the weekend crowds

Best window: Legal light (6:43 AM) to 10:00 AM

No push wind forecast; first light is the best bet

Off-season: the main migration window has not opened yet

Times shown for the region center. Season dates and limits change yearly and by zone: verify with Oklahoma Wildlife Conservation.

Flooded fields and playas: OpenCreeks, sloughs and timber: OpenThe big reservoirs and rivers: Open0 freezing degree-days over the last two weeks (estimated from air temps until the satellite ice feed lands)

Water on the landscape: Water on the landscape is in decent shape (0% of Oklahoma in drought, US Drought Monitor).

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  • Off-season: the main migration window has not opened yet

Poor

Off-season: the main migration window has not opened yet. Strongest window: Tue into Wed.

Pintails
2.5Tue152.5Wed162.5Thu172.5Fri182.5Sat193.0Sun203.4Mon212.6Tue222.1Wed233.5Thu242.5Fri252.3Sat262.2Sun272.5Mon28

Days 8 through 14 sit beyond the reliable forecast window and lean on season history. Read them as a trend, not a promise.

The score is a weighted blend of the drivers below, each rated 0 to 10 from current conditions. No black box: this is the whole model.

Cold front / temp trend16% weight
2.9

Temps falling ~2°F into the next 48h

Wind direction + speed14% weight
4.0

Light or variable winds

Freeze north of region16% weight
1.5

0% of upstream hours below 28°F

Snow advance upstream10% weight
1.5

Little to no snow upstream

Local open water / holding10% weight
9.0

Waters open, birds can stay and feed

Season timing14% weight
1.3

Outside the main migration window

Crop harvest / field feed8% weight
5.6

Corn ~65%, beans ~4% (typical-progress estimate)

Hunter reports12% weight
5.0

No recent hunter reports in this region

Pro

The freeze line across the stations upstream of this region, station by station, so you see shallow water locking up before the birds arrive on it.

Pro

Last night's NEXRAD read on whether birds actually moved: how much lifted off after sunset, which way it tracked, and how fast it flew under its own power once the wind at that altitude is subtracted out.

93°Fnow
SSW 18 mphwind
3°next 24h, rising
DayHi / LoWindSnow
TueSep 1598° / 78°S 18 mph
WedSep 1699° / 78°SSW 13 mph
ThuSep 17100° / 76°SSW 14 mph
FriSep 1899° / 77°S 16 mph
SatSep 19101° / 76°SSW 20 mph
SunSep 20100° / 69°SW 18 mph
MonSep 2187° / 65°NNE 14 mph
Pro

What other hunters reported in this region over the last 72 hours: species, how hard they were feeding, and whether the birds looked like new arrivals. Filing your own report is free and counts toward this region's score either way.