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Central

Keystone, Arcadia and the Deep Fork bottoms through the middle of the state. Hunted hard because the population is here.

6.8

Moderate Movement

Moderate Movement

Moderate confidence↑ +1.5 last 24hPintails 6.8

Mallards score, conditions as of Mon, Nov 2, 3:00 PM

Central

5.7

Falling 11° vs yesterday

Legal light 6:23 AMSunrise 6:53 AMSunset 5:33 PM🌗 Last quarter · 40%

5AM16W · 56°
6AM13W · 56°
7AM15WNW · 55°
8AM14W · 55°
9AM16WNW · 57°
10AM17WNW · 58°
11AM19NW · 58°
7.6Decoy score · WorkableWorking wind: 16 mph through the morning · Low overcast keeps birds low and honest · Midweek rest: birds have settled since the weekend crowds

Best window: 10:00 AM to 12:00 PM

Built around the strongest northwest wind of the morning

Temperatures falling about 14°F over the next 48 hours

  • Dry fall: birds concentrated on remaining water

Season dates · Zones 1 and 2 November 14 to December 6, 2026 and December 12, 2026 to January 31, 2027. Panhandle October 10, 2026 to January 13, 2027.

Times shown for the region center. Season dates and limits change yearly and by zone: verify with Oklahoma Wildlife Conservation.

Flooded fields and playas: OpenCreeks, sloughs and timber: OpenThe big reservoirs and rivers: Open0 freezing degree-days over the last 6 days, counting the next 2 at half (estimated from air temps until the satellite ice feed lands)

Water on the landscape: Dry fall: birds concentrated on remaining water (87% of Oklahoma in drought, US Drought Monitor).

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  • Temperatures falling about 14°F over the next 48 hours
  • Northwest winds building to 20 mph
  • Corn harvest roughly 98% complete, heavy field feed available

Good

Temperatures falling about 14°F over the next 48 hours. Northwest winds building to 20 mph. Strongest window: Mon into Tue.

Mallards
6.8Mon25.7Tue3

Days 8 through 14 sit beyond the reliable forecast window and lean on season history. Read them as a trend, not a promise.

The score is a weighted blend of the drivers below, each rated 0 to 10 from current conditions. No black box: this is the whole model.

Cold front / temp trend23% weight
7.1

Temps falling ~14°F into the next 48h

Wind direction + speed20% weight
9.5

NW winds to 20 mph across 21 of the next 48h

Freeze north of region8% weight
1.5

0% of upstream hours below 28°F

Snow advance upstream5% weight
1.5

Little to no snow upstream

Local open water / holding14% weight
6.7

87% of the state in drought: less water, and birds stacked on what is left

Season timing20% weight
6.2

Shoulder of the migration window

Crop harvest / field feed11% weight
8.8

Corn ~98%, beans ~65% (typical-progress estimate)

Hunter reports0% weight
5.0

No reports in the last 72h, so this factor is not counted

Pro

The freeze line across the stations upstream of this region, station by station, so you see shallow water locking up before the birds arrive on it.

Pro

Last night's NEXRAD read on whether birds actually moved: how much lifted off after sunset, which way it tracked, and how fast it flew under its own power once the wind at that altitude is subtracted out.

74°Fnow
S 19 mphwind
↓ 15°next 24h, falling
DayHi / LoWindSnow
MonNov 274° / 64°S 24 mph
TueNov 364° / 51°WNW 20 mph
WedNov 468° / 46°W 10 mph
ThuNov 564° / 51°E 16 mph
FriNov 662° / 46°N 13 mph
SatNov 766° / 48°W 8 mph
SunNov 862° / 46°NNW 17 mph
Pro

What other hunters reported in this region over the last 72 hours: species, how hard they were feeding, and whether the birds looked like new arrivals. Filing your own report is free and counts toward this region's score either way.