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North Missouri

Swan Lake and Fountain Grove in the Grand River bottoms. Big managed marsh and cut grain that peaks the last week of November and is usually iced by mid-December.

6.2

Moderate Movement

Moderate Movement

Moderate confidence↑ +2.0 last 24hSnow Geese 6.1

Mallards score, conditions as of Mon, Nov 2, 3:00 PM

North Missouri

6.7

Falling 5° vs yesterday

Legal light 6:14 AMSunrise 6:44 AMSunset 5:10 PM🌗 Last quarter · 40%

5AM11ESE · 62°
6AM14SE · 64°
7AM13S · 65°
8AM10S · 63°
9AM9S · 63°
10AM8S · 67°
11AM15SSE · 69°
7.9Decoy score · WorkableWorking wind: 11 mph through the morning · Low overcast keeps birds low and honest · Gusts to 42: decoys will look wrong on open water

Best window: Legal light (6:14 AM) to 10:00 AM

No push wind forecast; first light is the best bet

Temperatures falling about 9°F over the next 48 hours

  • Drier than normal: water is patchy

Season dates · North Zone October 31 to December 29, 2026. Middle Zone November 7 to December 13, 2026 and December 19, 2026 to January 10, 2027. South Zone November 26-29, 2026 and December 7, 2026 to January 31, 2027.

Times shown for the region center. Season dates and limits change yearly and by zone: verify with Missouri Department of Conservation.

Moist-soil and flooded corn: OpenGreen timber and sloughs: OpenBig river and reservoirs: Open0 freezing degree-days over the last 6 days, counting the next 2 at half (estimated from air temps until the satellite ice feed lands)

Water on the landscape: Drier than normal: water is patchy (47% of Missouri in drought, US Drought Monitor).

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  • Temperatures falling about 9°F over the next 48 hours
  • Northwest winds building to 16 mph
  • Corn harvest roughly 83% complete, heavy field feed available

Good

Temperatures falling about 9°F over the next 48 hours. Northwest winds building to 16 mph. Strongest window: Tue into Wed.

Mallards
6.2Mon26.7Tue3

Days 8 through 14 sit beyond the reliable forecast window and lean on season history. Read them as a trend, not a promise.

The score is a weighted blend of the drivers below, each rated 0 to 10 from current conditions. No black box: this is the whole model.

Cold front / temp trend21% weight
5.3

Temps falling ~9°F into the next 48h

Wind direction + speed18% weight
8.0

NW winds to 16 mph across 15 of the next 48h

Freeze north of region13% weight
1.5

0% of upstream hours below 28°F

Snow advance upstream8% weight
1.5

Little to no snow upstream

Local open water / holding13% weight
8.3

47% of the state in drought: water is patchier than normal

Season timing18% weight
8.1

Inside the prime migration window

Crop harvest / field feed10% weight
8.2

Corn ~83%, beans ~67% (typical-progress estimate)

Hunter reports0% weight
5.0

No reports in the last 72h, so this factor is not counted

Pro

The freeze line across the stations upstream of this region, station by station, so you see shallow water locking up before the birds arrive on it.

Pro

Last night's NEXRAD read on whether birds actually moved: how much lifted off after sunset, which way it tracked, and how fast it flew under its own power once the wind at that altitude is subtracted out.

71°Fnow
SSE 16 mphwind
↓ 10°next 24h, falling
DayHi / LoWindSnow
MonNov 271° / 60°SSE 19 mph
TueNov 369° / 53°SSW 21 mph
WedNov 462° / 49°W 17 mph
ThuNov 560° / 43°WNW 11 mph
FriNov 658° / 42°N 7 mph
SatNov 761° / 42°SW 17 mph
SunNov 851° / 47°NW 21 mph
Pro

What other hunters reported in this region over the last 72 hours: species, how hard they were feeding, and whether the birds looked like new arrivals. Filing your own report is free and counts toward this region's score either way.