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Central North Dakota

The heart of the prairie potholes, Chase Lake and Long Lake country. Massive staging numbers in October.

4.1

Stable / Staging

Stable Birds / Staging

Moderate confidence +0.1 last 24hPintails 4.7

Snow Geese score, conditions as of Tue, Sep 15, 12:00 PM

Central North Dakota

2.8

Steady temps

Legal light 6:50 AMSunrise 7:20 AMSunset 7:53 PM🌒 Waxing crescent · 23%

5AM12ESE · 45°
6AM12ESE · 44°
7AM13SE · 44°
8AM14SE · 45°
9AM16SE · 50°
10AM15SSE · 52°
11AM14SE · 52°
8.0Decoy score · Prime decoy dayWorking wind: 14 mph through the morning · Falling pressure: birds feed hard ahead of weather · Midweek rest: birds have settled since the weekend crowds

Best window: Legal light (6:50 AM) to 10:00 AM

No push wind forecast; first light is the best bet

Northwest winds building to 19 mph

Times shown for the region center. Season dates and limits change yearly and by zone: verify with ND Game and Fish.

Sheet water: OpenPotholes: OpenBig water: Open0 freezing degree-days over the last two weeks (estimated from air temps until the satellite ice feed lands)

Water on the landscape: Water on the landscape is in decent shape (0% of North Dakota in drought, US Drought Monitor).

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  • Northwest winds building to 19 mph

Poor

Northwest winds building to 19 mph. Strongest window: Tue into Wed.

Snow Geese
4.1Tue152.8Wed163.1Thu172.6Fri183.1Sat193.3Sun203.8Mon212.8Tue224.0Wed233.0Thu244.5Fri253.8Sat263.2Sun273.1Mon28

Days 8 through 14 sit beyond the reliable forecast window and lean on season history. Read them as a trend, not a promise.

The score is a weighted blend of the drivers below, each rated 0 to 10 from current conditions. No black box: this is the whole model.

Cold front / temp trend16% weight
3.4

Temps falling ~4°F into the next 48h

Wind direction + speed14% weight
8.3

NW winds to 19 mph across 14 of the next 48h

Freeze north of region16% weight
1.5

0% of upstream hours below 28°F

Snow advance upstream10% weight
1.5

Little to no snow upstream

Local open water / holding10% weight
9.0

Waters open, birds can stay and feed

Season timing14% weight
2.2

Outside the main migration window

Crop harvest / field feed8% weight
3.0

Corn ~0%, beans ~0% (typical-progress estimate)

Hunter reports12% weight
5.0

No recent hunter reports in this region

Pro

The freeze line across the stations upstream of this region, station by station, so you see shallow water locking up before the birds arrive on it.

Pro

Last night's NEXRAD read on whether birds actually moved: how much lifted off after sunset, which way it tracked, and how fast it flew under its own power once the wind at that altitude is subtracted out.

62°Fnow
NW 19 mphwind
6°next 24h, falling
DayHi / LoWindSnow
TueSep 1565° / 50°WNW 31 mph
WedSep 1669° / 44°SE 19 mph
ThuSep 1768° / 43°E 16 mph
FriSep 1873° / 54°ESE 14 mph
SatSep 1970° / 55°ESE 12 mph
SunSep 2067° / 54°ESE 10 mph
MonSep 2158° / 50°ESE 9 mph
Pro

What other hunters reported in this region over the last 72 hours: species, how hard they were feeding, and whether the birds looked like new arrivals. Filing your own report is free and counts toward this region's score either way.