Central North Dakota
The heart of the prairie potholes, Chase Lake and Long Lake country. Massive staging numbers in October.
Stable / Staging
Post-Season, Birds Moved Through
5.8
Conditions
1.3
Birds here
Conditions here are scoring 5.8 this morning, and that number is the same for every duck on this water. The blue-winged teal score is held at 3.3 because the blue-winged teal numbers in this region read 1.3 out of 10 for the date. A good morning on birds that have not arrived is still a quiet morning.
Blue-winged Teal score, conditions as of Tue, Oct 6, 12:00 AM
Today's Hunt · Tuesday, Oct 6
Central North Dakota
Steady temps
Legal light 7:17 AMSunrise 7:47 AMSunset 7:12 PM🌘 Waning crescent · 25%
Best window: 10:00 AM to 12:00 PM
Built around the strongest northwest wind of the morning
Held to the season curve: conditions are better than the blue-winged teal numbers here this time of year
- Drier than normal: water is patchy
Season dates · Low Plains Unit September 26 to December 6, 2026. High Plains Unit September 26 to December 6, 2026 and December 12, 2026 to January 3, 2027. Residents only September 26 to October 4; nonresidents may begin October 5.
Times shown for the region center. Season dates and limits change yearly and by zone: verify with ND Game and Fish.
Water Status
Water on the landscape: Drier than normal: water is patchy (58% of North Dakota in drought, US Drought Monitor).
Why this score is moving
- Held to the season curve: conditions are better than the blue-winged teal numbers here this time of year
- Northwest winds building to 18 mph
- Off-season: the main migration window has not opened yet
48-Hour Outlook
Poor
Held to the season curve: conditions are better than the blue-winged teal numbers here this time of year. Northwest winds building to 18 mph. Strongest window: Tue into Wed.
14-Day Score Outlook
Blue-winged TealDays 8 through 14 sit beyond the reliable forecast window and lean on season history. Read them as a trend, not a promise.
Inside the model
The score is a weighted blend of the drivers below, each rated 0 to 10 from current conditions. No black box: this is the whole model.
Temps falling ~1°F into the next 48h
NW winds to 18 mph across 20 of the next 48h
0% of upstream hours below 28°F
Little to no snow upstream
58% of the state in drought: water is patchier than normal
Outside the main migration window
Corn ~19%, beans ~44% (typical-progress estimate)
No reports in the last 72h, so this factor is not counted
North of you
ProThe freeze line across the stations upstream of this region, station by station, so you see shallow water locking up before the birds arrive on it.
Radar check
ProLast night's NEXRAD read on whether birds actually moved: how much lifted off after sunset, which way it tracked, and how fast it flew under its own power once the wind at that altitude is subtracted out.
Local conditions
| Day | Hi / Lo | Wind | Snow |
|---|---|---|---|
| TueOct 6 | 71° / 44° | NW 18 mph | |
| WedOct 7 | 64° / 45° | NW 17 mph | |
| ThuOct 8 | 64° / 49° | NW 6 mph | |
| FriOct 9 | 69° / 46° | SSE 18 mph | |
| SatOct 10 | 76° / 52° | WNW 17 mph | |
| SunOct 11 | 48° / 38° | NNE 19 mph | |
| MonOct 12 | 38° / 36° | ENE 12 mph |
Hunter intel
ProWhat other hunters reported in this region over the last 72 hours: species, how hard they were feeding, and whether the birds looked like new arrivals. Filing your own report is free and counts toward this region's score either way.