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Sand Lake and the Upper James

Sand Lake refuge and the James River flats above Aberdeen. Enormous snow goose staging, with mallards using the river when the sheet water goes.

3.1

Stable / Staging

Pre-Season, Birds Still North

High confidence -0.5 last 24hPintails 3.2

Snow Geese score, conditions as of Tue, Sep 15, 12:00 PM

Sand Lake and the Upper James

2.8

Steady temps

Legal light 6:43 AMSunrise 7:13 AMSunset 7:45 PM🌒 Waxing crescent · 23%

5AM5ENE · 50°
6AM4NNE · 49°
7AM4NNE · 49°
8AM3NE · 50°
9AM10SSE · 56°
10AM8SSE · 57°
11AM6SE · 60°
7.2Decoy score · WorkableNear-calm morning: birds will circle high and look hard · Low overcast keeps birds low and honest · Midweek rest: birds have settled since the weekend crowds

Best window: Legal light (6:43 AM) to 10:00 AM

No push wind forecast; first light is the best bet

Off-season: the main migration window has not opened yet

Times shown for the region center. Season dates and limits change yearly and by zone: verify with SD Game, Fish and Parks.

Sheet water: OpenPotholes and sloughs: OpenReservoirs and river: Open0 freezing degree-days over the last two weeks (estimated from air temps until the satellite ice feed lands)

Water on the landscape: Water on the landscape is in decent shape (0% of South Dakota in drought, US Drought Monitor).

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  • Off-season: the main migration window has not opened yet

Poor

Off-season: the main migration window has not opened yet. Strongest window: Tue into Wed.

Snow Geese
3.4Tue152.8Wed162.5Thu173.6Fri183.4Sat193.0Sun203.3Mon213.0Tue223.1Wed232.8Thu243.7Fri253.5Sat263.2Sun272.9Mon28

Days 8 through 14 sit beyond the reliable forecast window and lean on season history. Read them as a trend, not a promise.

The score is a weighted blend of the drivers below, each rated 0 to 10 from current conditions. No black box: this is the whole model.

Cold front / temp trend16% weight
1.7

Warming ~1°F, no push trigger

Wind direction + speed14% weight
3.6

NW winds to 10 mph across 7 of the next 48h

Freeze north of region16% weight
1.5

0% of upstream hours below 28°F

Snow advance upstream10% weight
1.5

Little to no snow upstream

Local open water / holding10% weight
9.0

Waters open, birds can stay and feed

Season timing14% weight
1.9

Outside the main migration window

Crop harvest / field feed8% weight
1.9

Corn ~2%, beans ~2% (typical-progress estimate)

Hunter reports12% weight
5.0

No recent hunter reports in this region

Pro

The freeze line across the stations upstream of this region, station by station, so you see shallow water locking up before the birds arrive on it.

Pro

Last night's NEXRAD read on whether birds actually moved: how much lifted off after sunset, which way it tracked, and how fast it flew under its own power once the wind at that altitude is subtracted out.

64°Fnow
WNW 9 mphwind
2°next 24h, falling
DayHi / LoWindSnow
TueSep 1569° / 50°W 13 mph
WedSep 1669° / 49°SSE 17 mph
ThuSep 1779° / 53°ENE 15 mph
FriSep 1863° / 57°ENE 18 mph
SatSep 1959° / 54°NE 11 mph
SunSep 2057° / 55°NE 11 mph
MonSep 2156° / 53°NE 10 mph
Pro

What other hunters reported in this region over the last 72 hours: species, how hard they were feeding, and whether the birds looked like new arrivals. Filing your own report is free and counts toward this region's score either way.