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South Central North Dakota

Missouri River and Lake Oahe influence. Open river water holds mallards deep into the freeze.

5.5

Moderate Movement

Moderate Movement

Moderate confidence↑ +0.3 last 24hMallards 6.6

Gadwall score, conditions as of Mon, Nov 2, 3:00 PM

South Central North Dakota

4.6

Falling 10° vs yesterday

Legal light 6:55 AMSunrise 7:25 AMSunset 5:24 PM🌗 Last quarter · 40%

5AM19NNW · 43°
6AM18NNW · 42°
7AM19NNW · 42°
8AM19NNW · 42°
9AM19NNW · 41°
10AM18NNW · 41°
11AM17NNW · 41°
7.6Decoy score · WorkableWorking wind: 18 mph through the morning · Low overcast keeps birds low and honest · Gusts to 38: decoys will look wrong on open water

Best window: 5:00 AM to 7:00 AM

Built around the strongest northwest wind of the morning

Temperatures falling about 14°F over the next 48 hours

  • Drier than normal: water is patchy

Season dates · Low Plains Unit September 26 to December 6, 2026. High Plains Unit September 26 to December 6, 2026 and December 12, 2026 to January 3, 2027. Residents only September 26 to October 4; nonresidents may begin October 5.

Times shown for the region center. Season dates and limits change yearly and by zone: verify with ND Game and Fish.

Sheet water: OpenPotholes: OpenBig water: Open0 freezing degree-days over the last 6 days, counting the next 2 at half (estimated from air temps until the satellite ice feed lands)

Water on the landscape: Drier than normal: water is patchy (52% of North Dakota in drought, US Drought Monitor).

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  • Temperatures falling about 14°F over the next 48 hours
  • Northwest winds building to 22 mph
  • Corn harvest roughly 71% complete, heavy field feed available

Fair

Temperatures falling about 14°F over the next 48 hours. Northwest winds building to 22 mph. Strongest window: Mon into Tue.

Gadwall
5.5Mon24.6Tue3

Days 8 through 14 sit beyond the reliable forecast window and lean on season history. Read them as a trend, not a promise.

The score is a weighted blend of the drivers below, each rated 0 to 10 from current conditions. No black box: this is the whole model.

Cold front / temp trend18% weight
7.1

Temps falling ~14°F into the next 48h

Wind direction + speed16% weight
10.0

NW winds to 22 mph across 48 of the next 48h

Freeze north of region18% weight
1.5

0% of upstream hours below 28°F

Snow advance upstream11% weight
1.5

Little to no snow upstream

Local open water / holding11% weight
8.4

52% of the state in drought: water is patchier than normal

Season timing16% weight
3.5

Shoulder of the migration window

Crop harvest / field feed9% weight
8.4

Corn ~71%, beans ~93% (typical-progress estimate)

Hunter reports0% weight
5.0

No reports in the last 72h, so this factor is not counted

Pro

The freeze line across the stations upstream of this region, station by station, so you see shallow water locking up before the birds arrive on it.

Pro

Last night's NEXRAD read on whether birds actually moved: how much lifted off after sunset, which way it tracked, and how fast it flew under its own power once the wind at that altitude is subtracted out.

54°Fnow
N 18 mphwind
↓ 13°next 24h, falling
DayHi / LoWindSnow
MonNov 256° / 45°NNE 22 mph
TueNov 345° / 36°NNW 21 mph
WedNov 453° / 33°NNW 14 mph
ThuNov 549° / 35°NNE 8 mph
FriNov 653° / 34°S 10 mph
SatNov 745° / 41°NW 25 mph
SunNov 847° / 35°NW 15 mph
Pro

What other hunters reported in this region over the last 72 hours: species, how hard they were feeding, and whether the birds looked like new arrivals. Filing your own report is free and counts toward this region's score either way.