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Lake Murray and the Congaree

Richland and Lexington out to Newberry, Saluda, Edgefield and Aiken: Lake Murray and the Congaree and Wateree bottoms around Columbia. Wood ducks in the river swamps.

4.7

Stable / Staging

Stable Birds / Staging

Low confidence↑ +0.4 last 24hCanada Geese 3.0

Wood Ducks score, conditions as of Thu, Oct 8, 6:00 PM

Lake Murray and the Congaree

4.8

Warming 5° vs yesterday

Legal light 5:56 AMSunrise 6:26 AMSunset 6:01 PM🌘 Waning crescent · 4%

5AM6N · 61°
6AM6NNE · 61°
7AM6NNE · 62°
8AM8NNE · 67°
9AM8NE · 71°
10AM10ENE · 74°
11AM14NE · 79°
7.3Decoy score · WorkableLow overcast keeps birds low and honest

Best window: Legal light (5:56 AM) to 10:00 AM

No push wind forecast; first light is the best bet

Corn harvest roughly 96% complete, heavy field feed available

  • Drier than normal: water is patchy

Season dates · November 21-28, 2026 and December 12, 2026 to January 31, 2027.

Times shown for the region center. Season dates and limits change yearly and by zone: verify with SCDNR.

Ponds, swamps and beaver ponds: OpenImpoundments, marsh and backwaters: OpenThe big lakes and rivers: Open0 freezing degree-days over the last two weeks (estimated from air temps until the satellite ice feed lands)

Water on the landscape: Drier than normal: water is patchy (57% of South Carolina in drought, US Drought Monitor).

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  • Corn harvest roughly 96% complete, heavy field feed available

Fair

Corn harvest roughly 96% complete, heavy field feed available. Strongest window: Sat into Sun.

Wood Ducks
4.7Thu84.8Fri9

Days 8 through 14 sit beyond the reliable forecast window and lean on season history. Read them as a trend, not a promise.

The score is a weighted blend of the drivers below, each rated 0 to 10 from current conditions. No black box: this is the whole model.

Cold front / temp trend30% weight
2.1

Flat temperature trend

Wind direction + speed15% weight
4.0

Light or variable winds

Freeze north of region8% weight
1.5

0% of upstream hours below 28°F

Snow advance upstream3% weight
1.5

Little to no snow upstream

Local open water / holding22% weight
8.1

57% of the state in drought: water is patchier than normal

Season timing20% weight
6.8

Shoulder of the migration window

Crop harvest / field feed2% weight
5.5

Corn ~96%, beans ~6% (typical-progress estimate)

Hunter reports0% weight
5.0

No reports in the last 72h, so this factor is not counted

Pro

The freeze line across the stations upstream of this region, station by station, so you see shallow water locking up before the birds arrive on it.

Pro

Last night's NEXRAD read on whether birds actually moved: how much lifted off after sunset, which way it tracked, and how fast it flew under its own power once the wind at that altitude is subtracted out.

74°Fnow
SSW 4 mphwind
↑ 3°next 24h, rising
DayHi / LoWindSnow
ThuOct 880° / 55°SW 5 mph
FriOct 984° / 61°NE 15 mph
SatOct 1072° / 64°ENE 17 mph
SunOct 1182° / 66°SSW 17 mph
MonOct 1282° / 61°WNW 12 mph
TueOct 1384° / 61°WNW 7 mph
WedOct 1488° / 63°SSW 7 mph
Pro

What other hunters reported in this region over the last 72 hours: species, how hard they were feeding, and whether the birds looked like new arrivals. Filing your own report is free and counts toward this region's score either way.