Pymatuning and the Northwest Marshes

Crawford, Mercer and Venango: Pymatuning, Conneaut Marsh, Erie Refuge and Shenango. The state's best puddle duck marsh, and among the first to lock in December.

3.3

Stable / Staging

Stable Birds / Staging

High confidence↑ +0.1 last 24hWood Ducks 4.7

Green-winged Teal score, conditions as of Mon, Nov 2, 3:00 PM

Tomorrow's Hunt · Tuesday, Nov 3

Pymatuning and the Northwest Marshes

3.4

Steady temps

Legal light 5:24 AMSunrise 5:54 AMSunset 4:14 PM🌗 Last quarter · 40%

5AM4SE · 55°

6AM3SE · 55°

7AM5SE · 55°

8AM7S · 59°

9AM8SSW · 61°

10AM4S · 59°

11AM6SSW · 64°

7.2Decoy score · WorkableNear-calm morning: birds will circle high and look hard · Low overcast keeps birds low and honest · Midweek rest: birds have settled since the weekend crowds

Best window: Legal light (5:24 AM) to 10:00 AM

No push wind forecast; first light is the best bet

Off-season: the main migration window has not opened yet

Season dates · North Zone October 10-24, 2026 and November 17, 2026 to January 9, 2027. South Zone October 10-17, 2026 and November 18, 2026 to January 18, 2027. Northwest Zone October 10 to November 27, 2026 and December 21, 2026 to January 9, 2027. Lake Erie Zone November 2, 2026 to January 9, 2027. Sundays are closed to all migratory bird hunting statewide in 2026-27.

Times shown for the region center. Season dates and limits change yearly and by zone: verify with PA Game Commission.

Water Status

Ponds, marshes and beaver swamps: OpenLakes and impoundments: OpenBig rivers and Lake Erie: Open0 freezing degree-days over the last 6 days, counting the next 2 at half (estimated from air temps until the satellite ice feed lands)

Water on the landscape: Water on the landscape is in decent shape (1% of Pennsylvania in drought, US Drought Monitor).

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Why this score is moving

Off-season: the main migration window has not opened yet

48-Hour Outlook

Poor

Off-season: the main migration window has not opened yet. Strongest window: Wed into Thu.

14-Day Score Outlook

Green-winged Teal

Days 8 through 14 sit beyond the reliable forecast window and lean on season history. Read them as a trend, not a promise.

Inside the model

The score is a weighted blend of the drivers below, each rated 0 to 10 from current conditions. No black box: this is the whole model.

Cold front / temp trend19% weight

1.1

Warming ~4°F, no push trigger

Wind direction + speed17% weight

4.0

Light or variable winds

Freeze north of region16% weight

1.5

0% of upstream hours below 28°F

Snow advance upstream10% weight

1.5

Little to no snow upstream

Local open water / holding12% weight

9.0

Waters open, birds can stay and feed

Season timing17% weight

1.8

Outside the main migration window

Crop harvest / field feed10% weight

6.5

Corn ~55%, beans ~64% (typical-progress estimate)

Hunter reports0% weight

5.0

No reports in the last 72h, so this factor is not counted

North of you

Pro

The freeze line across the stations upstream of this region, station by station, so you see shallow water locking up before the birds arrive on it.

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Radar check

Pro

Last night's NEXRAD read on whether birds actually moved: how much lifted off after sunset, which way it tracked, and how fast it flew under its own power once the wind at that altitude is subtracted out.

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Local conditions

67°Fnow

S 9 mphwind

↑ 2°next 24h, rising

Day	Hi / Lo	Wind
MonNov 2	69° / 48°	S 10 mph
TueNov 3	69° / 53°	SSE 8 mph
WedNov 4	69° / 51°	S 14 mph
ThuNov 5	65° / 48°	SW 14 mph
FriNov 6	52° / 38°	W 11 mph
SatNov 7	44° / 32°	WNW 11 mph
SunNov 8	52° / 30°	S 10 mph

Hunter intel

Pro

What other hunters reported in this region over the last 72 hours: species, how hard they were feeding, and whether the birds looked like new arrivals. Filing your own report is free and counts toward this region's score either way.

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