Lake Erie and Presque Isle
Erie County: Presque Isle Bay, the open lake and the shoreline. The last water in the state to ice, where late mallards and black ducks hold into January.
Stable / Staging
Stable Birds / Staging
3.2
Conditions
0.1
Birds here
Conditions here are scoring 3.2 this morning, and that number is the same for every duck on this water. The pintails score is held at 2.1 because the pintails numbers in this region read 0.1 out of 10 for the date. A good morning on birds that have not arrived is still a quiet morning.
Pintails score, conditions as of Mon, Nov 2, 3:00 PM
Tomorrow's Hunt · Tuesday, Nov 3
Lake Erie and Presque Isle
Steady temps
Legal light 5:25 AMSunrise 5:55 AMSunset 4:13 PM🌗 Last quarter · 40%
Best window: Legal light (5:25 AM) to 10:00 AM
No push wind forecast; first light is the best bet
Held to the season curve: conditions are better than the pintail numbers here this time of year
Season dates · North Zone October 10-24, 2026 and November 17, 2026 to January 9, 2027. South Zone October 10-17, 2026 and November 18, 2026 to January 18, 2027. Northwest Zone October 10 to November 27, 2026 and December 21, 2026 to January 9, 2027. Lake Erie Zone November 2, 2026 to January 9, 2027. Sundays are closed to all migratory bird hunting statewide in 2026-27.
Times shown for the region center. Season dates and limits change yearly and by zone: verify with PA Game Commission.
Water Status
Water on the landscape: Water on the landscape is in decent shape (1% of Pennsylvania in drought, US Drought Monitor).
Why this score is moving
- Held to the season curve: conditions are better than the pintail numbers here this time of year
- Persistent south winds are holding birds to the north
- Off-season: the main migration window has not opened yet
48-Hour Outlook
Poor
Held to the season curve: conditions are better than the pintail numbers here this time of year. Persistent south winds are holding birds to the north. Strongest window: Mon into Tue.
14-Day Score Outlook
PintailsDays 8 through 14 sit beyond the reliable forecast window and lean on season history. Read them as a trend, not a promise.
Inside the model
The score is a weighted blend of the drivers below, each rated 0 to 10 from current conditions. No black box: this is the whole model.
Warming ~4°F, no push trigger
Persistent south winds, migration-suppressing
0% of upstream hours below 28°F
Little to no snow upstream
Waters open, birds can stay and feed
Outside the main migration window
Corn ~55%, beans ~64% (typical-progress estimate)
No reports in the last 72h, so this factor is not counted
North of you
ProThe freeze line across the stations upstream of this region, station by station, so you see shallow water locking up before the birds arrive on it.
Radar check
ProLast night's NEXRAD read on whether birds actually moved: how much lifted off after sunset, which way it tracked, and how fast it flew under its own power once the wind at that altitude is subtracted out.
Local conditions
| Day | Hi / Lo | Wind | Snow |
|---|---|---|---|
| MonNov 2 | 69° / 50° | S 11 mph | |
| TueNov 3 | 68° / 56° | S 14 mph | |
| WedNov 4 | 70° / 54° | S 18 mph | |
| ThuNov 5 | 65° / 50° | SW 17 mph | |
| FriNov 6 | 52° / 41° | WSW 12 mph | |
| SatNov 7 | 42° / 34° | W 13 mph | |
| SunNov 8 | 52° / 31° | S 11 mph |
Hunter intel
ProWhat other hunters reported in this region over the last 72 hours: species, how hard they were feeding, and whether the birds looked like new arrivals. Filing your own report is free and counts toward this region's score either way.