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Western Piedmont and the Mountains

Charlotte and the Triad west to the mountains: Lake Norman, High Rock and the river sloughs and beaver ponds of the foothills. Light pressure, and wood ducks that leave the high ground for the winter.

2.1

Stable / Staging

Off-Season for This Species

4.7

Conditions

0.1

Birds here

High confidence→ 0.0 last 24hWood Ducks 5.4

Conditions here are scoring 4.7 this morning, and that number is the same for every duck on this water. The black ducks score is held at 2.1 because the black ducks numbers in this region read 0.1 out of 10 for the date. A good morning on birds that have not arrived is still a quiet morning.

Black Ducks score, conditions as of Thu, Oct 8, 7:00 PM

Western Piedmont and the Mountains

2.1

Warming 6° vs yesterday

Legal light 5:56 AMSunrise 6:26 AMSunset 6:01 PM🌘 Waning crescent · 9%

5AM2NNW · 54°
6AM1E · 54°
7AM2WSW · 55°
8AM2NNW · 60°
9AM2NW · 66°
10AM3NW · 72°
11AM3NW · 77°
5.7Decoy score · ToughNear-calm morning: birds will circle high and look hard · Bluebird sky: expect wary, high birds

Best window: Legal light (5:56 AM) to 10:00 AM

No push wind forecast; first light is the best bet

Held to the season curve: conditions are better than the black duck numbers here this time of year

  • Dry fall: birds concentrated on remaining water

Season dates · Inland Duck Zone (west of I-95) October 15-17, November 7-28, and December 18, 2026 to January 30, 2027. Coastal Duck Zone (east of I-95) October 23-24, November 7-28, and December 17, 2026 to January 30, 2027. Youth and veteran days December 5, 2026 and February 6, 2027.

Times shown for the region center. Season dates and limits change yearly and by zone: verify with NC Wildlife.

Ponds, swamps and impoundments: OpenMarsh, creeks and canals: OpenThe open sounds and big lakes: Open0 freezing degree-days over the last two weeks (estimated from air temps until the satellite ice feed lands)

Water on the landscape: Dry fall: birds concentrated on remaining water (60% of North Carolina in drought, US Drought Monitor).

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  • Held to the season curve: conditions are better than the black duck numbers here this time of year
  • Corn harvest roughly 88% complete, heavy field feed available
  • Off-season: the main migration window has not opened yet

Poor

Held to the season curve: conditions are better than the black duck numbers here this time of year. Corn harvest roughly 88% complete, heavy field feed available. Strongest window: Thu into Fri.

Black Ducks
2.1Thu82.1Fri9

Days 8 through 14 sit beyond the reliable forecast window and lean on season history. Read them as a trend, not a promise.

The score is a weighted blend of the drivers below, each rated 0 to 10 from current conditions. No black box: this is the whole model.

Cold front / temp trend23% weight
4.0

Temps falling ~5°F into the next 48h

Wind direction + speed20% weight
4.0

Light or variable winds

Freeze north of region6% weight
1.5

0% of upstream hours below 28°F

Snow advance upstream4% weight
1.5

Little to no snow upstream

Local open water / holding14% weight
8.1

60% of the state in drought: less water, and birds stacked on what is left

Season timing20% weight
0.1

Outside the main migration window

Crop harvest / field feed12% weight
5.7

Corn ~88%, beans ~15% (typical-progress estimate)

Hunter reports0% weight
5.0

No reports in the last 72h, so this factor is not counted

Pro

The freeze line across the stations upstream of this region, station by station, so you see shallow water locking up before the birds arrive on it.

Pro

Last night's NEXRAD read on whether birds actually moved: how much lifted off after sunset, which way it tracked, and how fast it flew under its own power once the wind at that altitude is subtracted out.

72°Fnow
W 3 mphwind
↓ 2°next 24h, falling
DayHi / LoWindSnow
ThuOct 884° / 54°W 6 mph
FriOct 980° / 58°NNE 9 mph
SatOct 1064° / 53°NE 15 mph
SunOct 1170° / 56°NNE 8 mph
MonOct 1275° / 58°NW 10 mph
TueOct 1383° / 56°W 4 mph
WedOct 1487° / 60°W 5 mph
Pro

What other hunters reported in this region over the last 72 hours: species, how hard they were feeding, and whether the birds looked like new arrivals. Filing your own report is free and counts toward this region's score either way.