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East Prairie and Noxubee

Noxubee refuge, the Tombigbee waterway and the black prairie ponds. Quiet water well east of the flyway's main line, and better than it looks.

2.4

Stable / Staging

Pre-Season, Birds Still North

High confidence 0.0 last 24hPintails 2.7

Mallards score, conditions as of Tue, Sep 15, 12:00 PM

East Prairie and Noxubee

2.4

Steady temps

Legal light 6:09 AMSunrise 6:39 AMSunset 7:02 PM🌒 Waxing crescent · 23%

5AM3SE · 75°
6AM6SE · 73°
7AM5SE · 73°
8AM7SSE · 76°
9AM9SSE · 81°
10AM9SE · 85°
11AM8SE · 87°
6.1Decoy score · ToughBluebird sky: expect wary, high birds · Midweek rest: birds have settled since the weekend crowds

Best window: Legal light (6:09 AM) to 10:00 AM

No push wind forecast; first light is the best bet

Held to the season curve: conditions are better than the mallard numbers here this time of year

Times shown for the region center. Season dates and limits change yearly and by zone: verify with Mississippi Wildlife, Fisheries and Parks.

Flooded fields and sheet water: OpenBrakes, oxbows and green timber: OpenReservoirs, the river and the coast: Open0 freezing degree-days over the last two weeks (estimated from air temps until the satellite ice feed lands)

Water on the landscape: Water on the landscape is in decent shape (0% of Mississippi in drought, US Drought Monitor).

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  • Held to the season curve: conditions are better than the mallard numbers here this time of year
  • Corn harvest roughly 87% complete, heavy field feed available
  • Off-season: the main migration window has not opened yet

Poor

Held to the season curve: conditions are better than the mallard numbers here this time of year. Corn harvest roughly 87% complete, heavy field feed available. Strongest window: Tue into Wed.

Mallards
2.4Tue152.4Wed162.4Thu172.4Fri182.2Sat192.4Sun202.4Mon212.4Tue222.4Wed232.4Thu242.4Fri252.4Sat262.4Sun272.4Mon28

Days 8 through 14 sit beyond the reliable forecast window and lean on season history. Read them as a trend, not a promise.

The score is a weighted blend of the drivers below, each rated 0 to 10 from current conditions. No black box: this is the whole model.

Cold front / temp trend16% weight
1.3

Warming ~4°F, no push trigger

Wind direction + speed14% weight
4.0

Light or variable winds

Freeze north of region16% weight
1.5

0% of upstream hours below 28°F

Snow advance upstream10% weight
1.5

Little to no snow upstream

Local open water / holding10% weight
9.0

Waters open, birds can stay and feed

Season timing14% weight
0.4

Outside the main migration window

Crop harvest / field feed8% weight
4.8

Corn ~87%, beans ~36% (typical-progress estimate)

Hunter reports12% weight
5.0

No recent hunter reports in this region

Pro

The freeze line across the stations upstream of this region, station by station, so you see shallow water locking up before the birds arrive on it.

Pro

Last night's NEXRAD read on whether birds actually moved: how much lifted off after sunset, which way it tracked, and how fast it flew under its own power once the wind at that altitude is subtracted out.

91°Fnow
SE 6 mphwind
1°next 24h, falling
DayHi / LoWindSnow
TueSep 1595° / 71°SSE 7 mph
WedSep 1695° / 73°SE 9 mph
ThuSep 1799° / 72°SE 10 mph
FriSep 18100° / 73°SE 7 mph
SatSep 19102° / 75°SSW 14 mph
SunSep 20100° / 72°S 16 mph
MonSep 2196° / 70°SSE 11 mph
Pro

What other hunters reported in this region over the last 72 hours: species, how hard they were feeding, and whether the birds looked like new arrivals. Filing your own report is free and counts toward this region's score either way.