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West Central and the Osage

Four Rivers, Schell-Osage, Montrose and the upper arms of Truman. Freeze-thaw country that stays huntable later than the north and swings hard week to week.

4.3

Stable / Staging

Stable Birds / Staging

5.9

Conditions

2.3

Birds here

High confidence↑ +1.1 last 24hMallards 5.9

Conditions here are scoring 5.9 this morning, and that number is the same for every duck on this water. The gadwall score is held at 4.3 because the gadwall numbers in this region read 2.3 out of 10 for the date. A good morning on birds that have not arrived is still a quiet morning.

Gadwall score, conditions as of Mon, Nov 2, 3:00 PM

West Central and the Osage

4.3

Falling 9° vs yesterday

Legal light 6:13 AMSunrise 6:43 AMSunset 5:14 PM🌗 Last quarter · 40%

5AM15S · 68°
6AM13SSW · 67°
7AM15S · 65°
8AM13S · 68°
9AM15SSW · 68°
10AM17SSW · 67°
11AM17SW · 64°
7.6Decoy score · WorkableWorking wind: 15 mph through the morning · Low overcast keeps birds low and honest · Gusts to 40: decoys will look wrong on open water

Best window: Legal light (6:13 AM) to 10:00 AM

No push wind forecast; first light is the best bet

Held to the season curve: conditions are better than the gadwall numbers here this time of year

  • Drier than normal: water is patchy

Season dates · North Zone October 31 to December 29, 2026. Middle Zone November 7 to December 13, 2026 and December 19, 2026 to January 10, 2027. South Zone November 26-29, 2026 and December 7, 2026 to January 31, 2027.

Times shown for the region center. Season dates and limits change yearly and by zone: verify with Missouri Department of Conservation.

Moist-soil and flooded corn: OpenGreen timber and sloughs: OpenBig river and reservoirs: Open0 freezing degree-days over the last 6 days, counting the next 2 at half (estimated from air temps until the satellite ice feed lands)

Water on the landscape: Drier than normal: water is patchy (47% of Missouri in drought, US Drought Monitor).

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  • Held to the season curve: conditions are better than the gadwall numbers here this time of year
  • Temperatures falling about 11°F over the next 48 hours
  • Corn harvest roughly 83% complete, heavy field feed available

Fair

Held to the season curve: conditions are better than the gadwall numbers here this time of year. Temperatures falling about 11°F over the next 48 hours. Strongest window: Mon into Tue.

Gadwall
4.3Mon24.3Tue3

Days 8 through 14 sit beyond the reliable forecast window and lean on season history. Read them as a trend, not a promise.

The score is a weighted blend of the drivers below, each rated 0 to 10 from current conditions. No black box: this is the whole model.

Cold front / temp trend21% weight
6.2

Temps falling ~11°F into the next 48h

Wind direction + speed18% weight
6.9

NW winds to 13 mph across 14 of the next 48h

Freeze north of region12% weight
1.5

0% of upstream hours below 28°F

Snow advance upstream7% weight
1.5

Little to no snow upstream

Local open water / holding13% weight
8.3

47% of the state in drought: water is patchier than normal

Season timing18% weight
2.3

Outside the main migration window

Crop harvest / field feed10% weight
8.2

Corn ~83%, beans ~67% (typical-progress estimate)

Hunter reports0% weight
5.0

No reports in the last 72h, so this factor is not counted

Pro

The freeze line across the stations upstream of this region, station by station, so you see shallow water locking up before the birds arrive on it.

Pro

Last night's NEXRAD read on whether birds actually moved: how much lifted off after sunset, which way it tracked, and how fast it flew under its own power once the wind at that altitude is subtracted out.

78°Fnow
S 17 mphwind
↓ 13°next 24h, falling
DayHi / LoWindSnow
MonNov 278° / 63°SSE 18 mph
TueNov 370° / 54°SSW 17 mph
WedNov 465° / 50°W 14 mph
ThuNov 565° / 48°W 8 mph
FriNov 660° / 43°NNE 9 mph
SatNov 762° / 43°SW 14 mph
SunNov 851° / 44°NW 18 mph
Pro

What other hunters reported in this region over the last 72 hours: species, how hard they were feeding, and whether the birds looked like new arrivals. Filing your own report is free and counts toward this region's score either way.