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Western Maryland

Garrett, Allegany and Washington counties: Deep Creek Lake, the Potomac pools and the river bottoms. Small water that locks early, and wood duck country first.

3.3

Stable / Staging

Pre-Season, Birds Still North

High confidence↓ -0.4 last 24hWood Ducks 4.1

Mallards score, conditions as of Mon, Oct 5, 10:00 PM

Western Maryland

3.3

Steady temps

Legal light 5:45 AMSunrise 6:15 AMSunset 5:52 PM🌘 Waning crescent · 34%

5AM2WSW · 56°
6AM2W · 53°
7AM5W · 54°
8AM6NW · 58°
9AM8WNW · 61°
10AM8WNW · 64°
11AM9WNW · 66°
6.2Decoy score · ToughNear-calm morning: birds will circle high and look hard

Best window: 10:00 AM to 12:00 PM

Built around the strongest northwest wind of the morning

Off-season: the main migration window has not opened yet

Season dates · Eastern Zone October 10-17, November 14-27, and December 15, 2026 to January 30, 2027. Western Zone October 3-17, November 21-27, and December 15, 2026 to January 30, 2027.

Times shown for the region center. Season dates and limits change yearly and by zone: verify with Maryland DNR.

Ponds and creeks: OpenTidal marsh and guts: OpenThe open Bay and rivers: Open0 freezing degree-days over the last two weeks (estimated from air temps until the satellite ice feed lands)

Water on the landscape: Water on the landscape is in decent shape (20% of Maryland in drought, US Drought Monitor).

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  • Off-season: the main migration window has not opened yet

Poor

Off-season: the main migration window has not opened yet. Strongest window: Wed into Thu.

Mallards
3.3Mon53.4Tue6

Days 8 through 14 sit beyond the reliable forecast window and lean on season history. Read them as a trend, not a promise.

The score is a weighted blend of the drivers below, each rated 0 to 10 from current conditions. No black box: this is the whole model.

Cold front / temp trend19% weight
2.6

Temps falling ~2°F into the next 48h

Wind direction + speed17% weight
4.0

Light or variable winds

Freeze north of region15% weight
1.5

0% of upstream hours below 28°F

Snow advance upstream9% weight
1.5

Little to no snow upstream

Local open water / holding12% weight
9.0

Waters open, birds can stay and feed

Season timing17% weight
1.9

Outside the main migration window

Crop harvest / field feed10% weight
3.8

Corn ~45%, beans ~7% (typical-progress estimate)

Hunter reports0% weight
5.0

No reports in the last 72h, so this factor is not counted

Pro

The freeze line across the stations upstream of this region, station by station, so you see shallow water locking up before the birds arrive on it.

Pro

Last night's NEXRAD read on whether birds actually moved: how much lifted off after sunset, which way it tracked, and how fast it flew under its own power once the wind at that altitude is subtracted out.

52°Fnow
NW 3 mphwind
→ 0°next 24h, steady
DayHi / LoWindSnow
MonOct 570° / 50°WNW 12 mph
TueOct 665° / 42°S 5 mph
WedOct 776° / 45°WSW 10 mph
ThuOct 875° / 49°W 13 mph
FriOct 970° / 42°NW 7 mph
SatOct 1068° / 46°SE 8 mph
SunOct 1158° / 51°SE 6 mph
Pro

What other hunters reported in this region over the last 72 hours: species, how hard they were feeding, and whether the birds looked like new arrivals. Filing your own report is free and counts toward this region's score either way.