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Baltimore and the Western Shore

Baltimore, Anne Arundel and Prince George's: the tidal rivers and creeks off the Bay's western side, and the Patuxent's goose roost at Merkle.

2.5

Stable / Staging

Pre-Season, Birds Still North

High confidence→ 0.0 last 24hWood Ducks 4.3

Scoters score, conditions as of Mon, Oct 5, 10:00 PM

Baltimore and the Western Shore

2.5

Steady temps

Legal light 5:37 AMSunrise 6:07 AMSunset 5:45 PM🌘 Waning crescent · 34%

5AM4WSW · 59°
6AM3SW · 59°
7AM4SSW · 59°
8AM4SW · 60°
9AM7WSW · 64°
10AM9WNW · 67°
11AM11NW · 68°
6.0Decoy score · Tough

Best window: 10:00 AM to 12:00 PM

Built around the strongest northwest wind of the morning

Off-season: the main migration window has not opened yet

Season dates · Eastern Zone October 10-17, November 14-27, and December 15, 2026 to January 30, 2027. Western Zone October 3-17, November 21-27, and December 15, 2026 to January 30, 2027.

Times shown for the region center. Season dates and limits change yearly and by zone: verify with Maryland DNR.

Ponds and creeks: OpenTidal marsh and guts: OpenThe open Bay and rivers: Open0 freezing degree-days over the last two weeks (estimated from air temps until the satellite ice feed lands)

Water on the landscape: Water on the landscape is in decent shape (20% of Maryland in drought, US Drought Monitor).

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  • Off-season: the main migration window has not opened yet

Poor

Off-season: the main migration window has not opened yet. Strongest window: Wed into Thu.

Scoters
2.5Mon52.5Tue6

Days 8 through 14 sit beyond the reliable forecast window and lean on season history. Read them as a trend, not a promise.

The score is a weighted blend of the drivers below, each rated 0 to 10 from current conditions. No black box: this is the whole model.

Cold front / temp trend31% weight
3.7

Temps falling ~5°F into the next 48h

Wind direction + speed26% weight
4.0

Light or variable winds

Freeze north of region12% weight
1.5

0% of upstream hours below 28°F

Snow advance upstream2% weight
1.5

Little to no snow upstream

Local open water / holding5% weight
9.0

Waters open, birds can stay and feed

Season timing24% weight
0.5

Outside the main migration window

Crop harvest / field feed0% weight
3.8

Corn ~45%, beans ~7% (typical-progress estimate)

Hunter reports0% weight
5.0

No reports in the last 72h, so this factor is not counted

Pro

The freeze line across the stations upstream of this region, station by station, so you see shallow water locking up before the birds arrive on it.

Pro

Last night's NEXRAD read on whether birds actually moved: how much lifted off after sunset, which way it tracked, and how fast it flew under its own power once the wind at that altitude is subtracted out.

56°Fnow
WNW 5 mphwind
↓ 6°next 24h, falling
DayHi / LoWindSnow
MonOct 573° / 54°WNW 12 mph
TueOct 664° / 46°NW 7 mph
WedOct 772° / 46°SSW 12 mph
ThuOct 885° / 58°W 13 mph
FriOct 972° / 59°NNW 7 mph
SatOct 1071° / 59°SE 6 mph
SunOct 1165° / 60°ESE 12 mph
Pro

What other hunters reported in this region over the last 72 hours: species, how hard they were feeding, and whether the birds looked like new arrivals. Filing your own report is free and counts toward this region's score either way.