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Upper Eastern Shore

Kent and Queen Anne's: the Chester River, Eastern Neck and the corn country behind them. Canada goose ground first, with tidal marsh ducks along the water.

3.9

Stable / Staging

Stable Birds / Staging

Moderate confidence↓ -0.5 last 24hWood Ducks 4.5

Green-winged Teal score, conditions as of Mon, Oct 5, 9:00 PM

Upper Eastern Shore

3.9

Steady temps

Legal light 5:34 AMSunrise 6:04 AMSunset 5:42 PM🌘 Waning crescent · 34%

5AM4SW · 58°
6AM3SW · 59°
7AM3SSW · 58°
8AM5SW · 61°
9AM8SW · 63°
10AM9W · 66°
11AM8WNW · 69°
6.6Decoy score · WorkableNear-calm morning: birds will circle high and look hard

Best window: 10:00 AM to 12:00 PM

Built around the strongest northwest wind of the morning

No strong migration triggers in the current data

Season dates · Eastern Zone October 10-17, November 14-27, and December 15, 2026 to January 30, 2027. Western Zone October 3-17, November 21-27, and December 15, 2026 to January 30, 2027.

Times shown for the region center. Season dates and limits change yearly and by zone: verify with Maryland DNR.

Ponds and creeks: OpenTidal marsh and guts: OpenThe open Bay and rivers: Open0 freezing degree-days over the last two weeks (estimated from air temps until the satellite ice feed lands)

Water on the landscape: Water on the landscape is in decent shape (20% of Maryland in drought, US Drought Monitor).

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  • No strong migration triggers in the current data

Poor

No strong migration triggers in the current data. Strongest window: Mon into Tue.

Green-winged Teal
3.9Mon53.3Tue6

Days 8 through 14 sit beyond the reliable forecast window and lean on season history. Read them as a trend, not a promise.

The score is a weighted blend of the drivers below, each rated 0 to 10 from current conditions. No black box: this is the whole model.

Cold front / temp trend19% weight
3.9

Temps falling ~5°F into the next 48h

Wind direction + speed17% weight
4.0

Light or variable winds

Freeze north of region16% weight
1.5

0% of upstream hours below 28°F

Snow advance upstream10% weight
1.5

Little to no snow upstream

Local open water / holding12% weight
9.0

Waters open, birds can stay and feed

Season timing17% weight
4.1

Shoulder of the migration window

Crop harvest / field feed10% weight
3.8

Corn ~45%, beans ~7% (typical-progress estimate)

Hunter reports0% weight
5.0

No reports in the last 72h, so this factor is not counted

Pro

The freeze line across the stations upstream of this region, station by station, so you see shallow water locking up before the birds arrive on it.

Pro

Last night's NEXRAD read on whether birds actually moved: how much lifted off after sunset, which way it tracked, and how fast it flew under its own power once the wind at that altitude is subtracted out.

56°Fnow
NNW 6 mphwind
↓ 7°next 24h, falling
DayHi / LoWindSnow
MonOct 571° / 53°WNW 14 mph
TueOct 661° / 46°NNW 8 mph
WedOct 770° / 45°S 14 mph
ThuOct 881° / 59°WSW 11 mph
FriOct 970° / 51°NNW 9 mph
SatOct 1071° / 53°W 6 mph
SunOct 1166° / 57°ESE 15 mph
Pro

What other hunters reported in this region over the last 72 hours: species, how hard they were feeding, and whether the birds looked like new arrivals. Filing your own report is free and counts toward this region's score either way.