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North Central Reservoirs

Glen Elder, Kirwin, Webster and Lovewell across the Solomon and Republican valleys. Big water that fills late in December and freezes before the east does.

6.6

Moderate Movement

Moderate Movement

Moderate confidence↑ +1.4 last 24hPintails 6.9

Mallards score, conditions as of Mon, Nov 2, 3:00 PM

North Central Reservoirs

5.7

Falling 13° vs yesterday

Legal light 6:34 AMSunrise 7:04 AMSunset 5:30 PM🌗 Last quarter · 40%

5AM25N · 56°
6AM24NNW · 55°
7AM24NNW · 54°
8AM23NNW · 53°
9AM23NNW · 52°
10AM24NNW · 51°
11AM25NNW · 51°
7.3Decoy score · WorkableWorking wind: 24 mph through the morning · Low overcast keeps birds low and honest · Gusts to 46: decoys will look wrong on open water

Best window: 10:00 AM to 12:00 PM

Built around the strongest northwest wind of the morning

Temperatures falling about 18°F over the next 48 hours

Season dates · High Plains Unit October 10, 2026 to January 3, 2027 and January 22-31, 2027. Low Plains Early Zone October 10 to December 6, 2026 and December 19, 2026 to January 3, 2027. Low Plains Late Zone October 31, 2026 to January 3, 2027 and January 23-31, 2027. Low Plains Southeast Zone November 7, 2026 to January 3, 2027 and January 16-31, 2027.

Times shown for the region center. Season dates and limits change yearly and by zone: verify with Kansas Wildlife and Parks.

Playas and sheet water: OpenMarsh and creek bottoms: OpenReservoirs and river: Open0 freezing degree-days over the last 6 days, counting the next 2 at half (estimated from air temps until the satellite ice feed lands)

Water on the landscape: Water on the landscape is in decent shape (21% of Kansas in drought, US Drought Monitor).

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  • Temperatures falling about 18°F over the next 48 hours
  • Northwest winds building to 25 mph
  • Corn harvest roughly 92% complete, heavy field feed available

Good

Temperatures falling about 18°F over the next 48 hours. Northwest winds building to 25 mph. Strongest window: Mon into Tue.

Mallards
6.6Mon25.7Tue3

Days 8 through 14 sit beyond the reliable forecast window and lean on season history. Read them as a trend, not a promise.

The score is a weighted blend of the drivers below, each rated 0 to 10 from current conditions. No black box: this is the whole model.

Cold front / temp trend20% weight
8.3

Temps falling ~18°F into the next 48h

Wind direction + speed17% weight
10.0

NW winds to 25 mph across 31 of the next 48h

Freeze north of region14% weight
1.5

0% of upstream hours below 28°F

Snow advance upstream9% weight
1.5

Little to no snow upstream

Local open water / holding12% weight
9.0

Waters open, birds can stay and feed

Season timing17% weight
5.0

Shoulder of the migration window

Crop harvest / field feed10% weight
8.6

Corn ~92%, beans ~84% (typical-progress estimate)

Hunter reports0% weight
5.0

No reports in the last 72h, so this factor is not counted

Pro

The freeze line across the stations upstream of this region, station by station, so you see shallow water locking up before the birds arrive on it.

Pro

Last night's NEXRAD read on whether birds actually moved: how much lifted off after sunset, which way it tracked, and how fast it flew under its own power once the wind at that altitude is subtracted out.

72°Fnow
S 15 mphwind
↓ 21°next 24h, falling
DayHi / LoWindSnow
MonNov 272° / 57°SSE 24 mph
TueNov 357° / 47°NNW 25 mph
WedNov 461° / 41°WNW 14 mph
ThuNov 557° / 42°N 11 mph
FriNov 659° / 41°NE 7 mph
SatNov 768° / 45°WNW 14 mph
SunNov 854° / 42°NNW 17 mph
Pro

What other hunters reported in this region over the last 72 hours: species, how hard they were feeding, and whether the birds looked like new arrivals. Filing your own report is free and counts toward this region's score either way.