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Post Oak Savannah

The Brazos and Navasota bottoms between Waco and College Station. Scattered water, and a stopover more than a destination.

2.7

Stable / Staging

Pre-Season, Birds Still North

High confidence 0.0 last 24hGadwall 2.7

Pintails score, conditions as of Tue, Sep 15, 12:00 PM

Post Oak Savannah

2.8

Steady temps

Legal light 6:42 AMSunrise 7:12 AMSunset 7:32 PM🌒 Waxing crescent · 23%

5AM4SSE · 80°
6AM3S · 78°
7AM3SSE · 77°
8AM2SSE · 79°
9AM4SW · 83°
10AM5SW · 86°
11AM3SSW · 90°
6.1Decoy score · ToughNear-calm morning: birds will circle high and look hard · Midweek rest: birds have settled since the weekend crowds

Best window: Legal light (6:42 AM) to 10:00 AM

No push wind forecast; first light is the best bet

Held to the season curve: conditions are better than the pintail numbers here this time of year

Times shown for the region center. Season dates and limits change yearly and by zone: verify with Texas Parks and Wildlife.

Playas, rice and flooded fields: OpenMarsh, sloughs and timber: OpenReservoirs, bays and the Laguna: Open0 freezing degree-days over the last two weeks (estimated from air temps until the satellite ice feed lands)

Water on the landscape: Water on the landscape is in decent shape (0% of Texas in drought, US Drought Monitor).

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  • Held to the season curve: conditions are better than the pintail numbers here this time of year
  • Corn harvest roughly 81% complete, heavy field feed available
  • Off-season: the main migration window has not opened yet

Poor

Held to the season curve: conditions are better than the pintail numbers here this time of year. Corn harvest roughly 81% complete, heavy field feed available. Strongest window: Wed into Thu.

Pintails
2.4Tue152.8Wed162.8Thu172.7Fri182.7Sat192.3Sun202.7Mon212.8Tue222.6Wed232.6Thu242.7Fri252.9Sat262.7Sun272.7Mon28

Days 8 through 14 sit beyond the reliable forecast window and lean on season history. Read them as a trend, not a promise.

The score is a weighted blend of the drivers below, each rated 0 to 10 from current conditions. No black box: this is the whole model.

Cold front / temp trend16% weight
2.5

Temps falling ~1°F into the next 48h

Wind direction + speed14% weight
4.0

Light or variable winds

Freeze north of region16% weight
1.5

0% of upstream hours below 28°F

Snow advance upstream10% weight
1.5

Little to no snow upstream

Local open water / holding10% weight
9.0

Waters open, birds can stay and feed

Season timing14% weight
0.7

Outside the main migration window

Crop harvest / field feed8% weight
7.6

Corn ~81%, beans ~29% (typical-progress estimate)

Hunter reports12% weight
5.0

No recent hunter reports in this region

Pro

The freeze line across the stations upstream of this region, station by station, so you see shallow water locking up before the birds arrive on it.

Pro

Last night's NEXRAD read on whether birds actually moved: how much lifted off after sunset, which way it tracked, and how fast it flew under its own power once the wind at that altitude is subtracted out.

94°Fnow
S 10 mphwind
0°next 24h, steady
DayHi / LoWindSnow
TueSep 15101° / 79°S 14 mph
WedSep 1697° / 77°SSE 12 mph
ThuSep 1798° / 77°SE 16 mph
FriSep 1899° / 74°SE 11 mph
SatSep 1999° / 69°SSE 13 mph
SunSep 20100° / 70°SSE 14 mph
MonSep 21100° / 71°SSE 12 mph
Pro

What other hunters reported in this region over the last 72 hours: species, how hard they were feeding, and whether the birds looked like new arrivals. Filing your own report is free and counts toward this region's score either way.